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Putin's
visit to India & China
Sawraj
Singh
Russian
President Vladimir Putin recently visited China and India: This trip
has great historical significance because it represents an emergence
of a grand eastern alliance. This alliance, consisting of Russia,
China, and India will be the largest and historically, the most
powerful alliance in the world. It will radically change the balance
of power, putting an effective end to the western domination of the
world, which has lasted for the past two centuries. This will also
change our perceptions of the last two decades; that we are heading
towards a unipolar world with exclusive American hegemony and that
the western style of capitalism has emerged triumphant.
Many
people, all over the world, had started believing that globalisation,
which is the highest developed form of the capitalist mode o f
production, has established itself as the pattern of development for
all of the countries of the world and as the foundation of the new
world order. Both these assumptions will be proven wrong. Actually,
the world is headed towards a multipolar world where no country,
race, colour, region, religion, nation, or ideology can have
exclusive domination of the world. Instead of a uniform pattern of
development, various countries and regions will follow different
systems of progress. China and Russia attained almost identical
views on all of the major problems of the world.
The
final thirteen page joint -communiqué between Putin and the Chinese
president Jiang Zemin reflected this unity and understanding.
Whether the issue was Iraq, North Korea, global hegemony, or the
concept of a multipolar world, both leaders expressed similar views.
China showed support for Russia's entry in the WTO. In another very
important issue, the Russian role in South Asia, the Chinese gave
their full support. These developments will have a great impact on
the situation in South Asia. Russia is perceived by many people in
India as a true and trusted friend.
After
the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a tendency in India to seek
an anti-Chinese and anti-Islamic alliance with the USA and Israel.
The Russians were pushed to the background. Now this trend appears
to be completely changing. There is a realization that America and
India have different goals and that their natural alliances are also
different. India has been particularly frustrated with the American
attitude on terrorism. Many Indian leaders are speaking against the
double standards on this issue. They feel that America has shown
insensitivity to India's becoming a victim of Pakistan-sponsored
terrorism.
Russia,
on the other hand, has openly and strongly criticized Pakistan for
supporting terrorism. Putin even raised the possibility of
terrorists belonging to such groups as the A l Qaeda Network getting
nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Russia and India also have concerns
about an American attack on Iraq. A growing number of people have
been thinking that Putin wanted to increase pressure on America with
his harsh condemnation of Pakistan. He could be hinting that such an
attack on Iraq may lead to an Indian attack on Pakistan. This
scenario is capable of creating tremendous difficulties for America,
if it responds to Russian-supported Indian attacks on Pakistan, then
it risks escalating the conflict.
The
Chinese are not expected to support Pakistan but are likely to try
and keep America out of their backyard. This can mean an almost
certain defeat for Pakistan. If America does not respond and
Pakistan loses, then it can be seen as a blow to American prestige
because America's ally loses. In 1971, India, with the support of
Russia defeated and dismembered Pakistan. This lead to the rise of
Russian influence and the decline of American influence in the
subcontinent. America was able to counter this trend by lining up
with China against Russia, but now, the situation is very different.
For
all practical purposes, Russia and China have made a strategic
alliance. India's growing frustration with America, and the fact
that most of the weapons of the Indian army are still coming from
Russia, almost assure that India will follow Russia, that meaning,
it will join the alliance of Russia and China. There is a very
noticeable change in India's attitude towards China. In the past,
China was seen as a rival and an adversary, but now a growing number
of Indians are impressed by China's progress. Many feel that the
western pattern of development cannot work in India and that India
should also learn from the Chinese experience.
More
and more Indians are becoming convinced that India's future lies in
the east. Improving relations with China is being seen as an
important step towards coming back to the Asian fold. The great
eastern alliance of Russia, China, and India will contain the
largest population of any single alliance--more than four times that
of NATO. It looks almost certain that within a decade, China will
become the largest economy in the world. Russia has the largest
land-mass and the most untapped resources in the world. Russia also
has a large industrial base and sophisticated weaponry. The fact
cannot easily be forgotten by many people in the Indian subcontinent
that it was India armed with Russian weapons which beat Pakistan,
who were armed by America in the last major Indo-Pakistan war
(1971).
India
can also bring a very useful asset to the alliance. India has the
largest pool of trained work force in the world, particularly in
computer technology. This contribution can be a great source of
potential strength for the alliance. The emergence of the great
eastern alliance can help with restoration of the balance of power
in the world and thus help in maintaining peace and harmony in the
world. Historical experience teaches us that imbalance of power
leads to instability, and eventually war.
The
three major trends of the world are inevitable. Asia emerging as the
leading region, China becoming the largest economy and Islam
becoming the largest religion. All these trends mean that the 21st
century will be fundamentally different than the last two centuries.
An alliance of Russia, China, and India can help t o make this
transition smooth. Instead of a violent confrontation, a peaceful
change will be a welcome change for people of the world, including
Americans. Let us hope that the 21st century will make this world a
better place to live for all.
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