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N E P A L: Red Flag Flying
By Romeet Kaul Watt
Clubbed
between two Asian powers, India and China, Nepal has been undergoing
the worst political upheaval in its history. Largely supported
"People's Movement" in 1990 paved the way for the establishment of a
constitutional democratic system but for the past six-years the
Himalayan nation has been unable to contain Maoist insurgency. Media
reports suggest that more than 4500 people have lost their lives:
Maoist attacks, police and army actions are the order of the day;
more than half of the kingdom has been reeling under the spat of
violent activities. There is growing evidence that the Maoist
activities seem to be extensive with large armies of rebels
attacking the army and police posts. Commenting on the motivation
and ideology, Chitra K Tiwari, strategic analyst, says: “The
movement feeds on poverty, discontent with repressive policies, and
corruption. The highly confrontational character of the country's
mainstream politics has been a weak counterweight. The outlook is
for continued unrest, with potential danger to American
organizations and to the security of neighboring parts of
India.”
The
roots of the communist movement in Nepal can be traced back to 1949
when the Communist Party of Nepal was founded under the leadership
of late Pushpa Lal Shrestha who emerged as an academic resistance to
Nepali Congress. The Maoist movement has emerged in the background
of this history of Nepal’s communist movement. On 12 February
1996 the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) or shortly CPN-Maoist
started its so-called "people’s war" (jana yuddha) to cause
the collapse of state power, it called reactionary, and to institute
a new people’s republic.
The
CPN-Maoist is one of several splinter groups of the Communist Party
of Nepal (CPN) that believes in the ideals of Chinese Cultural
Revolution as it is represented nowadays by the Revolutionary
International Movement (RIM). The CPN-Maoist came to birth when the
political wing of Nepal’s radical left parties, the Samyukta Jana
Morcha Nepal (SJMN) or United People’s Front Nepal, split in late
1993. At that time, the SJMN had been the third strongest force in
the Pratinidhi Sabha (House of Representatives) with 9 MPs.The
splinter groups around Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known as Comrade
Prachanda, now called itself CPN-Maoist.
Their (Maoist) goals are to overthrow the
bureaucrat-capitalist class and state system, which are dependent on
and serve imperialism; uproot semi-feudalism; and drive out
imperialism. To do this, the CPN (Maoist) is applying Mao’s strategy
of a protracted people’s war — establishing base areas in the
countryside and aiming to surround the cities, seize nationwide
power, and establish a new democratic republic as a step toward
building a new socialist society. Their struggle is part of the
world proletarian revolution.
These forces have ideologically
integrated with their counterfoils in the communist world and also
with the strong Marxist-Leninist Diaspora in Latin America and
India. The Maoist communist Revolutionaries from Peru, Philippines
and India (Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar) are linked with
the Revolutionary Internationalists Movement (RIM), which is
preparing the ground for the ultimate coming together of the
Communist Revolutionaries throughout the world. The revolutionary
Internationalist Movement is the developing center of the world
unadulterated communist forces and its struggling for the formation
of a Communist International, a new type based on
Marxist-Leninist-Maoism. It is believed that they have more than
fraternal links with the Maoist Communist Center (MCC), which
operates in the Indian States of Bihar and the PWG in Andhra
Pradesh.
Inside sources revel that the Maoist leadership
is hiding in India. It is also no secret that India’s Maoist groups
acquire weapons for the Nepali rebels, make available them safe
houses in Indian Territory and have trained them in the use of
explosives and landmines. Such acknowledgement — open or otherwise —
has little or no importance unless it ultimately leads to taking
apart of the much-talked about nexus between Nepalese Maoists and
Indian extremist groups such as the Naxalites, ULFA or the People’s
Power Group. In an indirect way, the Nepali army is already fighting
what can be called a cross-border war.
Washington does not have major interests in
Nepal, but analyst believe that it will be indirectly affected by
increased volatility in India's northeast, bordering on China. It
will also be concerned about the likely deterioration in the human
rights situation. The most instantaneous U.S. concern, however, will
be the security threat to its organizations and citizens.
Michael E. Malinowski US Ambassador to Nepal says that Maoism or
so called people's war are fundamentally the same as terrorists
elsewhere—be the members of the Shining Path, Abu Sayaf, the Khmer
Rouge or Al Qaida. They according to him are radicals who seek to
impose their narrow views and beliefs on others, despite the popular
will of those they seek to influence or convert.
Nepal, in the past, has left no stone unturned
to maintain an evenhanded relationship between India and China. It
has very close trade and industry links with India, and there is
considerable movement of people across their permeable border. India
has by tradition observed Nepal's stability as an important
component in its own security, and has reacted sharply to any
military connection between Nepal and China. Observers point out
that the worst Indo-Nepal crisis in modern history arose out of the
harsh Indian reaction to reports of a military sales agreement
between Nepal and China.
India has traditionally has had an upper hand
due to the manifold potential pressure points on Nepal. These,
analyst believe, include the security provisions of the 1950 Treaty
of Friendship, under which New Delhi can act in response to
Kathmandu's request for military help, and Nepal's reliance on India
for import and export transfer. India's best strategy, says a
strategic analyst, may be the one it has already begun:
strengthening border defense and dealing with its own insurgencies.
“Because China's policy will probably be driven by India's, India
should seek to avoid sharp reaction that could spark greater Chinese
involvement,” he further says.
China always has had special interest in Nepal
for it has served as the transit point for Tibetan refugees headed
for India, most importantly including the Karmappa Lama, granted
asylum by India. Observers feel that China's main apprehension is
the probable use of Nepal as a safe haven by the Free Tibet
movement. Kavre, Dolakha and Sidhupalchok districts, hotbeds of
Maoist insurgency are along the 120-kilometer Araniko main road
connecting Nepal and China, built in the 1960s with Chinese help
despite India's protestation. Analyst also point out that there is
at present no substantiation of official Chinese support for the
Nepalese Maoists, although an surge in Tibetan activities in Nepal
could make the Maoists a attractive tool for retribution.
A senior political scientist observes: “Maoist insurgency has
survived six-year period and continues to enter into news phases is
in itself a clear indication that the movement is no longer a
temporary phenomenon without social bases.” Insiders believe
that the bureaucratic approach of viewing Maoist movement as an
“activity of individual killing and pure terrorism” has not helped
to resolve the problem.
When the movement began they believed in extortion and as
they started expanding they started to be more sophisticated.
Letters were sent to businessmen and contractors to donate money and
later they made it mandatory that teacher, civil servants,
contractors and other professionals living in the villages to pay a
certain amount of money to the Maoist administration as revenue.
However the insurgents have lately established themselves in
the urban areas. The Maoists have reportedly, been engaged in
mobilising their workers to help the local people for various
construction and developmental works. Reports emanating form Nepal
suggest that they help the villagers in crop plantations and
harvesting and also in cleaning to influence and gain support. The
Maoist System of governance is based on equal access to resources
and equal regents for all. They have according to media reports set
up "People's Courts" which looks into cases & giving verdicts,
suggesting local commanders to take judicial action. The Maoist
insurgents, many believe have lot of popular support in the villages
as they reel under poverty and unemployment.
Another notable attribute of Maoist movement is the degree of
women’s partaking in guerrilla ranks. Women’s political
involvement in the past had been limited to electoral areas,
particularly, in voting and occasional candidacy in elections.
It is as a big surprise to observers that Nepali women have joined
guerrilla organization. According to an estimate about 35% of Maoist
guerrillas comprise of women, a new phenomenon that has emerged in
Nepal.
Despite the extension of the state of emergency,
the Nepali state forces have not been able to do irreparable damage
to the insurgents. Sometimes it is delay in the arrival of
reinforcements. Sometimes it is lack of coordination between army
and police. Most of the time it is poor communications and awful
intelligence; areas where they have goofed. The government
apparently continues to treat the intelligence service and other
pressing security issues with some disdain. This, according to many
observers is dangerous. Political analyst observers: “The state of
emergency is in itself no magic wand. It needs to be supplemented by
good intelligence and good tactics. It is also a breathing spell
that should be used to take a hard look at
dialogue.”
Nepali strategic planners have failed to evolve a strategy by
which people would stop giving sanctuaries to guerrillas.
This, observers point out, could have been done by means of
substantial economic development package to people in the initial
stages of uprising. Media reports also indicate that the
reprieve package that the government has allocated after so much of
killings has become irrelevant. Counter-insurgency actions
necessitate civil-military harmonization in which clean civil
administrators are expected to disburse economic development
package. Strategic analyst observes: “Nepal’s problem is not
the Maoist war but an entrenched coalition of corrupt politicians
and bureaucrats that profits from Maoist war. It is very much
likely that the economic relief package announced to combat
insurgency could be yet another opportunity to corrupt civilian as
well as military authorities for embezzlement.” He further says that
the Counter-insurgency measure, if applied and executed by
clean hands, will help minimize the distribution crisis, which in
turn, will help to neutralize popular support to guerrillas.
Otherwise, many believe, it remains a protracted problem and there
is no way to obstruct Maoist revolution. The government
forces, under the present policies, could win couple of battles here
and there but will never win the war.
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