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Will
this houseboat float or sink?
Romeet
K WATT
The
palaver that unfolded in the post-election milieu in Kashmir has
come to a close. The unfolding drama proved to be a pure
adrenaline-and-testosterone level of high political-adventure. The
music has stopped, and a play called musical chairs’ has come to
an end with the Congress Chief, Sonia Gandhi, lackadaisically, much
against the wishes of her party colleagues, and New Delhi [read BJP],
conceding the post of Chief Ministership to
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, the chief of People’s Democratic
Party [PDP]. In the
process, she has extorted her pound of flesh by not only dictating
the provisos of the common minimum programme [CMP], but also
ensuring that the mantle of the co-ordination committee [CC] will be
in the hands of Ghulam not-so Azad, whose position would be akin to
that of George Fernandes [you have company] in the National
Democratic Alliance at the Centre. Congress is also likely to assume
the important post of the speaker in the legislative assembly.
Madam
has killed two birds with one stone; firstly by yielding the CM’s
position to PDP, she has shown magnanimity and generosity - a
phenomenon not-so in practice - which will indubitably earns her
some good points as a leader on path en route to maturity [sorry M J
– (read Akbar), can’t take away the credit]; and secondly, she
has effectively been able to double-check, that the radical
programme, PDP wanted to implement, is toned down to suit the
interests of Indian National Congress. The charter of the 31 point
CMP mutually agreed upon, has 17 points devoted to the restitution
of peace and normalcy, and curbing corruption. However, the issue of
devolution of more powers to the state, finds no visible mention in
the document.
In
doing so, the Congress Chief has upset the rank-and-file of her
party in the Jammu region but things are not so gloomy; Jammu will
have a Deputy - Chief Minister, though, the local leadership still
feels that given the numbers-advantage that Congress had over PDP,
the CM’s post should have been in their kitty. But at least for
now, nobody is going to complain and invite the wrath of Madam. But
the way the father-daughter duo of Mufti Clan have conducted
themselves, in regionalising the issue of Chief Ministership, the
people have more reasons to be forlorn at this step motherly
treatment meted out to them. A larger section of the congressmen in
the state apprehend that Mr Sayeed may recommend dissolution of the
state assembly after the completion of his three year tenure,
robbing Congress the chance to head the government.
The
maverick chief of Panther’s Party [PP], Prof. Bhim Singh is known
renegade, who after vehemently opposing the candidature of Sayeed,
later fell in line at the behest of the Congress Chief.
Incidentally, he is the same gentleman, who in the first place
opposed the whole electioneering process itself on the premise (or
was it excuse) that the voter lists were not updated, and even
petitioned the Supreme Court, it would seem, at the behest of
certain separatist elements (read People’s Conference).
The
poster boy of National Conference [NC], Omar Abdullah, is not, as we
have been led to believe going to spend time reading Robert Ludlum
[recommended read: “borne” trilogy], but he and his golfer dad
would be waiting for the right opportunity to topple the Congress-PDP
government, and the fact that Farooq Abdullah and Congress have not
been best of friends given that subsequent to the June 1983
elections, the Congress (I) pursued a policy of total confrontation
with the government. Mrs G dismissed Farooq Abdullah’s government
on July 2, 1984, and with the support of Congress (I), G M Shah
[estranged brother-in-law of Farooq Abdullah] took over as Chief
Minister.
A
reconciliation of sorts was later arrived at in 1986 with the
Rajiv-Farooq accord but that was again short-lived, and Farooq found
himself retreating to the safe haven’s of London, with the advent
of V P Singh at the helm of affairs in New Delhi. But the hurt of
having been dismissed by Mrs G, still pinches the Abdullah senior,
and to assume that, he would not in due course of time, oust the
coalition government would be to ignore the obvious.
National
Conference think-tank also believes that the present government
formation is more out of compulsion in comparison to one rooted on a
set of convictions. Abdullah senior’s honed disdain for the
Congress combined with his rebuttal to carry on as the care-taker CM
even at the request of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, epitomes his
care-a-damn attitude.
BJP,
his partner-in-politics (read honeymoon) has also much at stake with
elections to nine states not too distant; and Gujarat elections
around the corner. BJP, contrary to the public postures would make
things difficult for Srinagar. Much eventually depends upon whether
the PMO - where Sayeed’s pilot (read Amarjeet Singh Daulat, former
RAW Chief) is on a deputation and is still very much working on
Kashmir - would lend an olive branch to PDP or whether the home
ministry lead by Sardar Advani would prevail. In course of events,
eventually, Advani’s would be a stiff upper lip in response to
Srinagar. This is the bottom line, take it or leave it.
“Daddy’s
good-girl,” Mehbooba Mufti, without doubt has grown by leaps and
bounds, and would be playing a crucial role in the process, but it
remains to be seen whether the vigour with which she has transformed
herself to the present position would eventually translate into a
process wherein the genuine aspirations of the people, which she has
promised, would be met. What we are witnessing are placatory
sound-bites; which unless translated into practice are hollow and
meaningless.
The
“third-front” of the coalition government, which has an agenda
more extreme that the PDP itself, would not like to be left behind
and would pitch itself in a way that their presence is felt. Many
believe that this constituent of the coalition would be the tactical
irritant. Watch out for Ghulam Sofi, the proxy candidate of the
People’s Conference, who would certainly play a crucial role in
the negotiations with the separatists, APHC, after all, his
cloak-and-dagger relation with the separatists is common knowledge.
To arrive at the “broad based consensus,” the “political
will” of the combine will be tested to the hilt when it opens
direct channels of communication with APHC and company - other
segment of the public opinion.
PDP chief will assume the
role as the head of the government under very difficult
circumstances, after all, what he inherits from Farooq Abdullah is a
grim legacy of misrule and militancy. We earnestly hope that he
would take all his coalition partners into confidence, and avoid any
“family squabble” within the coalition, and do his best under
the circumstances. The hopes are many, and stakes are high. And, the
world is watching!
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