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Pakistan:
Looking into the crystal ball
Romeet
K WATT
George
W Bush, in recent times, has earned the dubious distinction of
radicalising Muslims into anti-American postures, to set in motion,
the arrangement for pro-Islamic forces to assume dominant role in
government formation, in two Muslim countries – Turkey and
Pakistan. The all-encompassing victory of an Islamist party in
secular Turkey is a vivid case in point of up-and-coming
disposition. This facilitation has come about due to her (US)
one-upmanship, in the world-order, resulting in sharp
‘polarisation’ of countries into Islamic and non-Islamic blocks,
an event, which had died its natural death in the aftermath of the
break-up of erstwhile USSR. But with the US pursuing an agenda,
perceived in the Islamic world as being anti-Muslim, the recent set
of setbacks does in no way come as a major surprise.
The
broad electoral victory in Turkey of Justice and Development Party (JVP),
a party with Islamic roots, characterizes a journey into
‘unchartered waters.’ The fact that its leader, Receptayyip
Erdogan, is a practicing Muslim, who once was active in the Islamist
movement, just completes the grim picture for Western countries. JVP
has assumed absolute majority to the Turkish Grand National Assemble
(TGNA) but the only ray of hope for the Western establishments is
the all-powerful military elite in Turkey who have, in past, played
a pivotal role in arresting the rise and growth of Islamic forces,
unlike Pakistan, where a large section of the omnipotent military
has facilitated the growth and rise of Islamists.
US
has provided a wonderful opportunity to the fundamentalist Islamic
forces, in Pakistan; Maulana Fazlur Rahman - the Prime Ministerial
candidate of MMA - wouldn’t have dreamt in the wildest of his
imaginations, that one day, thanks to Uncle Sam, he would be a
serious contender to assume the mantle of governance in Pakistan.
MMA, the religious alliance, comprising of the Jammat-e-Islami (JEI)
of Qazi Hussain Ahmad, the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) of Maulana
Fazlur Rahman, the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam of Maulana Samiul Haq, the
Jamiat-ul-Ulema Pakistan (JUP) of Shah Ahmed Noorani, the Markazi
Jamiat Ahle Hadith (MJAH) of Sajid Mir and the Tehrik Islami of
Sajid Naqvilost, lost no time in translating the opportunity to
convert anti-America sentiments into votes, and thus emerged as a
strong force on the political scene.
MMA
has earned 45 seats, an unprecedented 18 percent of the National
Assembly, in addition to control of one provincial government and
sharing in a second. This makes them a major political player rather
than the marginal party they have been in the past. Strong showing
of these religious parties raises serious doubts about how the
government will deal with a ‘political force’ that is
antagonistic to its ties with the United States and will press on a
hard line toward India.
MMA,
analysts believe, will do their best to lessen government manacles
on the country's Islamic militants and push continuing Pakistani
support for the Kashmir insurgency. They will press on Musharraf to
limit the role of U.S. law enforcement agencies in pursuing Taliban
and Al Qaeda fugitives, particularly in districts where the MMA is
in the provincial government. Should the US fail to see the writing
on the wall, and against wise council, pursue war against Iraq, the
world-order may not remain same for many a time to come. War against
Iraq, as and when, it takes place, will surely consolidate the
anti-US sentiments, and may even lead to the toppling of Musharraf
by some hardliner Islamist military General.
The
victories of the MMA, analysts also argue, could make available to
Musharraf an alibi to discourage the USA from pushing to dismantle
the terrorist infrastructure engaged against India. These elections
are likely to hearten Musharraf’s endeavour to revitalize the old
alliance between the army and the religious right. MMA, without
doubt would also like to further strengthen its fundamentalist
influence in Kashmir and persuade military elite to continue Jihad
in Kashmir.
The
elections pose little threat to Musharraf's dominance of
decision-making but in the long term, MMA could have an important
bearing on Pakistan's domestic stability, sectarian violence and
radical clout inside the armed forces, something, which would be an
issue of alarm for him. However Western analysts, regard Gen. Pervez
Musharraf, as just another in the long line of inept opportunists
– military and civilian alike – who have governed Pakistan over
the past half century. Analysts also predict that Musharraf will be
able to retain power as long as he wishes, unless he is
assassinated, but will not be able to clean the country.
Musharraf
has kept ace up his sleeve by establishing the National Security
Council (NSC) by decree before the election to serve as a forum for
consultation on strategic matters pertaining to the sovereignty,
integrity and security of the State. This institution, many believe,
is central to his and the army's strategy for keeping control over
national security and foreign policy, and over major aspects of
domestic politics.
Musharraf
took a calculated gamble, not that he had much choice, to kowtow US,
in the post 9/11 scenario on the consideration that the implied
monitory benefits would help revive Pakistan’s sagging economic
condition. With her economy in shambles, Pakistan grabbed the
opportunity to ally with US to bring about a transition on the
economic front, not that there is much hope, given that her troubles
are so deep rooted and systematic that nobody could lead the country
out of them.
Pakistan,
now in its sixth decade of independence, has its economy and
prosperity heavily dependent on agriculture but is already forced to
import food grains. One of the major stumbling blocks in the
agricultural sector is the water storage problem, which has depleted
to one-third of its original volume, since 1947. Socio-economic
conditions have worsened so much in the past 15 years that
occurrence of poverty has accelerated, raising the figure of people
below the poverty line from 17 million in mid 1980’s to nearly 50
million in a total population of 140 million. According to Pakistan
public-policy group, approximately 38% of the population lived below
the poverty line. World Bank states in its 2000 report that 54% of
the population above 15 million was illiterate – a whopping 46
million. Healthcare, according to WB (1999) report, the mortality
rate for children under five years of age was 126 per mille.
However
no sooner did Pakistan join the US war against terror that
Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have shown remarkable upsurge
trend, unheard of, in the past. The reserves have dramatically risen
five-fold from US $ 1.5 billion before September 11 to US $ 7.5
billion and all indicators point that the upward trend will
continue. The transition has been facilitated, analysts point out,
by rearrangement of the essential ingredients of the external debt
(US $ 32.5 billion), with liberal grace periods, by the
creditor-countries, consequently ensuing a decline in cash outflow
towards debit servicing obligations. Speculations are rife that US
played a pivotal role in IMF’s approval of a long pending
Pakistani call for a generous loan under the poverty reduction and
growth facility, which involves a lesser rate of interest than loans
for economic support and structural reforms.
In
order to placate their respective domestic constituencies, US allies
in its war against terror – Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and even Kuwait
have expressed reservations about the use of its military bases by
the US troops in its war against Iraq. War against Iraq undoubtly;
compounds the domestic problems of Pakistan, which may even lead to
the banishment of the US forces from Pakistan. The volt face of
Pakistan on Taliban has cost her dearly with the rejuvenation of
Islamic forces, depriving her of any hope to translate herself into
a progressive democratic republic, something, which the ordinary
Pakistani looked forward to. Should MMA head the government, it
could pilot Pakistan en route to its own version of an ‘Islamic’
revolution backed by Islamic hardliners, and extreme elements in the
army.
America’s
pressing goal, analysts concede, in the region is to eliminate the
terrorists who pose a danger to American lives and interests and to
make certain the stability and durability in Afghanistan of an
administration responsive to the West and acquiescent to Washington.
However, whatever may be the outcome, US interests may be seriously
hampered should MMA assume the mantle of governance in Pakistan.
Reports
emanating from Washington point out that US has actively engaged its
machinery to broker a deal between Benazir Bhutto’s PPP, and
Musharraf’s PML – QA, with the singular objective of keeping MMA
outside the government formation. US exactly know how to exploit a
state beleaguered by violence, illiteracy, corruption, poverty,
religious extremism, and tribalism, to serve its purpose in
Southeast Asia. US, would in no way impede its relations with
Pakistan whom it looks down as an over modestly nuclear armed
small-time partner, that carries out low-end military tasks on the
its agenda.
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