12 Oct 2010
The State Equilibrium of Pakistan
By Archen Baloch

The patience of Punjabi military of Pakistan is wearing thin. The reasons are obvious:Pakistan has now become a bed ridden man and all its vital organs have ceased to function properly. But its inept PPP rulers are insisting that they can fix it with the help of foreign aids.

Pakistani army has never been in love with democracy; it has always enjoyed foreign supports whenever it took the rein of power directly, or played behind the scene.

But this time around things are tremendously changed; Pakistan’s existence is either way at stake. If it imposes martial law or emergency, both are catastrophic for Pakistan. But it is sure that Pakistan’s Military establishment is exploring a third way how to take over and save Pakistan from disintegration.

Pakistan army, Because of its composition, is also called Punjabi army, as 78 percent of its personnel are from three districts of northern Punjab with a 20 percent from Pashtun ethnic. The remaining 2 percent are from karachiite Muhajirs. Baloch and Sindhi are all together excluded in this composition. This is the weakness of Pakistani Military, where its top brass have often been seen explaining that their army is a national army. For any adventure, given its Punjabi composition, it has to resort to Sindhi Wadiras, Baloch chieftains, and religious Pashtuns for political support.

From external complications, the overbearing demand of world community to do more against terrorism has left no option for Pakistani military other than to revert back to take the covert control of the “political” affairs of the state. With respect to democracy, current Zardari government is a total dysfunctional. Both India and Afghanistan are constantly reminding the international community that Pakistan is indeed the epicenter of terrorism from where all evils of terrorism are emanating.

When it comes to diplomatic niceties, French in their talks are far more outspoken than their fellow European nations; as French have never been seen beating around the bush. The head of foreign affairs of France, Bernhard Koushner, says “Taliban leaders have been given shelter in Pakistan. I'm not revealing anything new”

But it isn’t the only external pressure that has plunged Pakistan in a precarious situation of isolation. The existential threat to Pakistan is what that has deprived the omnipotent Punjabi Military leadership of its cozy sleep in Rawalpindi. The internal threat is so significant that the majority of top international intellectuals have openly declared that Pakistan is indeed a failed state. It has lost its legitimacy of a viable state. It is likely that one of the most troubled (by Pakistan) countries around the world is going to file a case against Pakistan in Security Council or in the UN General Assembly for revisiting its status as a viable member state of United Nations. 

The American policy towards Pakistan is rather of carrot and stick. But it is not working now, and the Americans are exhausted, the shuttling of American officials between Washington and Islamabad and then Kabul is bearing no fruit regarding the Talban’s “sophisticated onslaughts” on allied forces in Afghanistan. And this ubiquitous relation between Pakistan and America has now come to a head.

The Indian and Afghan pressures are a great cause of irritancy to Pakistan, because in return they pay nothing to it. But American and its allies are pouring billions of Dollars into its coffers. It is this American money that has sustained not only Pakistan economy, but also Pakistan itself.

An extraordinary crisis meeting takes place early this month between army and the political establishment. Pakistan’s finance minister Hafeez Sheikh, in the presence of Zardari and PM Gilani administration, briefs the top brass of Punjabi military leadership that Pakistan economy is so precarious that it is not likely to have money to pay salaries to its employees in the next two months.

The troubled Pakistan is constantly being bailed out by American.

Karachi is the main port city of Pakistan, where it conducts it exports and imports business. But it’s now in a constant grip of ethnic conflict, where Pashtun and Urdu speaking Muhajirs are at each other’s throat. The land locked Pashtun are seeking to have a share of control over Karachi for commercial and trade needs. And the Muhajirs are hell bent on to dislodge them from Karachi, for this, they are constantly creating unrest in Karachi and labeling all pushtons as Talban; so that the migration of pushton is stopped with the backing of Pakistani military. The apprehension of Muhajir is that the influx of Pashtuns would upset the Muhajir demographic setup into a minority. So far a level of restrain is maintained, no one dares to cross it. But now it has become a volcano, it could erupt any time soon. Each warring ethnic group disguised in the love of Pakistan is set to race against the time to gain the control of Karachi. This tension has severally disrupted Pakistan’s economic activities to the level of security risk.

Following the failure of 11 years of ruthless campaign of bombardments arrests, tortures, enforced disappearances, diversionary propaganda of attributing Baloch Resistance Movement with the trivial demands and Talban; It failed to suppress it any further. It has already spiraled out of Pakistani state control. The irreversible liberation movement of Baloch nation rendered Pakistan into a moral crisis where it has lost its statehood equilibrium. The 63 years of cruel containment policy maintained behind the smokescreen of “Islamic Pakistan” is based on severe punishment of Baloch youths. The heinous crimes that Pakistan is committing in Balochistan are consisting of abduction of youths and denying them access to justice and killing them under detentions.

Pakistan has already lost its political control over Balochistan, except its military cantonments and the garrisons all over Baloch Homeland manned with Punjabi soldiers with a number of Pashtuns mercenaries.

In 1991 the USSR’s head Mikhail Gorbachev admitted that Soviet Russia has lost its political control over its union republics.

During Senior Bush era, the James Baker team refused to bail out the Soviet Russia for economic meltdown. 

However, the ripple effects of soviet collapse were far more severe than the conceived fear of world community about Pakistan’s disintegration.

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