28 Sep 2008
PDP will loose very badly in Elections: Praveen Swami
Excerpted from a Report on the Study Tour by Beersmans Paul, President – Belgian Association for Solidarity with Jammu and Kashmir, to India and the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir from August 02-30, 2008

MEETING, IN DELHI, WITH PROF. K. WARIKOO, DIRECTOR CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES PROGRAMME, SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, JAWAHARLAL NEHRU UNIVERSITY, NEW DELHI

I do not think there is any fundamental or basic change of the Pakistan policy framework and its implementation in Kashmir. During the latest SAARC meeting In Colombo there was some sort of agreement that terrorism needs to be controlled but today’s statement of Musharraf (he supports ISI by declaring that ISI is Pakistan’s first line of defence against Afghanistan, India and in Kashmir) puts the focus once again on the importance of ISI and Pakistan’s actions and policy. As long as institutional support and basis for terrorists and their infrastructure is intact, there is little likelihood of improvement.

It is ironical that violence and infiltration increased. There were also some cease-fire violations, probably meant to cover infiltration of militants. Talibanisation and militarization of religion in politics in the Valley is inducting and radicalising youth.

Human rights violations came down under Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad. All allegations regarding disappearances and mass graves have to be inquired by an objective, impartial investigation, as human rights violations have been committed by the security forces and by the militants. The separatists are exaggerating the number of human rights violations just to fuel hatred and keep the pot boiling.

The Amarnath issue is a mishap created by political leaders of the Valley who claim to belong to the mainstream political parties and at the same time are hand in glove with the separatists and extremists. The J&K State Government has dully constituted the Shrine Board. It is common knowledge that the lakhs of pilgrims to Amarnath needed some temporary protection/shelter to save them from snowstorm/heavy rainfall and other natural disaster that are common to that area. The State Government has not fulfilled its obligations to give support and protection. This is a sad reflection of the mindset of the State Government/Administration. Now that the Shrine Board was authorised through this land transfer to install temporary shelters for the pilgrims, a nefarious disinformation campaign was launched by the so-called mainstream political parties and their leaders against such decision. This implies that the communal elements in the Valley do not want the non-Muslim devotees to visit their places of pilgrimage in Kashmir. The situation has been polarised in the two regions and even Congress Members of the Legislative Assembly have come out with statements exposing the communal and separatist agenda of the PDP and its leadership.

The elections should be held in a congenial atmosphere and the flames of passion should be doused with reason and objective/balanced equitable administrative measures.

MEETING WITH MR. PRAVEEN SWAMI, JOURNALIST, POLITICAL ANALYST, IN NEW DELHI

Two aspects are becoming clear in the recent evolution in the Valley: first, militancy is declining, at least in the open and second, the ideological influence of the Islamist parties in the Valley is increasing. Here, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, leader of his own APHC and Tehreek-e-Hurriyat, and Asiya Andrabi, leading the women’s wing Dukhtaran-e-Millatt, are spearheading the ‘movement’. They shape the agenda. They jump on every occasion to highlight the high values of Islam and the decadence of the influence of the West. They raked up the prostitution scandal, the rape of a teenage girl and now the Amarnath issue.

The secular parties do not succeed anymore to keep the debate on secular, developmental aspects. They are always cornered by religious matters brought forward by the Islamic fundamentalists. Instead of democracy, development and rights, all what is talked about is religious identity in a very paramount way. They pretend that a Muslim cannot survive in a secular, non-Islamic state. It is like a fish who cannot survive out of water, they say.

In the present mass movement, there are different types of participants. First, there are the committed cadres and members of the different separatist movements and organisations. Second, there are a lot of young unemployed and semi-unemployed youth of the middle class and the semi middle class who do not get the opportunity to get a job. They are educated, their parents made a lot of sacrifices to get them educated and now they cannot find a job. They get disappointed with and angry on the system. Third, there are the bystanders who are joining the masses.

All this leads to the conclusion that the agitation is not a simple nationalist movement. It is a mixture of social, economic and communal aspects. And of course, we must also take into account the agitation in Jammu region having its own dynamics and compulsions. For the time being, there is total polarisation between the Kashmir and Jammu. This will be the driving factor, the engine for the political life in the near future.

For a solution for the Amarnath issue, the land should be transferred to the Shrine Board on a temporary basis during the time of the Yatra and the Malik family should again be a part of the organisational structure. In addition, the LoC should be opened for trade. India completely supports this demand since long. Pakistan promised that they agree and that this will start on 01 Oct 08.

The democratic system must be restored. Therefore, elections in the State must be organised the soonest: organising elections will force the mainstream politicians to come forward. The next Government most likely will be a coalition Government (NC with Congress Party or NC and BJP). PDP will loose very badly. In the Valley, NC and independent candidates will form a majority.
23 Sep 2008
West Unable to Stop Growing Unity of the Third World
India has mostly followed policies which can be considered pro Western and less in line with the rest of Asia. India will come under increasing pressure from other countries in the region to change its pro western policies, says Swaraj Singh

The recent developments in Africa, South America and Asia show that the traditional western policy of “Divide and Rule”, is not working anymore. The Third World continues to show more unity, whether it is Zimbabwe in Africa, Bolivia in South America or Nepal and India in Asia.

In Zimbabwe, the western countries have failed to dislodge Mugabe and incite a civil war between the Zanu and the MDC. In spite of the massive propaganda campaign by the Western media, the Zanu and the MDC have been able to reach a compromise in power sharing. Robert Mugabe and his rival Morgan Tsvangirai were able to reach the historic power sharing deal today, Monday 15th September 2008 in Harare.

According to this deal, Robert Mugabe will remain the President of the country and Morgan Tsvangirai will become the Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. Mugabe will remain the head of the army but the Police will come under the control of Tsvangirai. There will be 31 members of the cabinet 16 will come from the MDC and 15 will come from the Zanu PF. In a clear indication that the Western countries are not happy to see Zimbabwe united, the U.S. and the European union have declared that they are not going to lift the sanctions enforced on Zimbabwe. However, the African countries see the deal as a great show of the African unity. Mbeki the President of South Africa worked very hard to close the deal.

In an emergency summit of the UNASUR (Union of South American Nations) in Santiago Chile, the nine Presidents condemned last week’s political violence in Bolivia and gave full backing to President Evo Morales of Bolivia. President Morales has blamed America for the unrest and has expelled the American ambassador from Bolivia. In a statement, the UNASUR has offered full and firm support for the constitutional government of President Evo Morales, whose mandate was ratified by a big majority. A warning was also given that any government formed following an illegal removal of President Morales would not be recognized as legitimate.

Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela, said that the unrest in Bolivia was a conspiracy directed by the U.S. Empire, comparing it to the 1973 CIA backed coup, which ousted Chile’s President Salvador Allende. In this coup led by General Pinochet, thousands were killed, including Dr. Allende, who died fighting the Generals army. Pinochet was later tried for his crimes.

The rise of Maoism in Nepal is a very significant development. Prime Minister Prachanda is now visiting India. It appears that the West will like to see India standing up against China. However, the rise of Maoism in Nepal is bound to be a setback for the Western plans. The geographical location of Nepal is very important. It is located between India and China. During the last fifty years Nepal has followed policies, which were subservient to India. However, after installation of the present government, Nepal wants to peruse independent policies, Prachanda has made it clear during his current visit that Nepal wants to review the treaties signed with India, including the India-Nepal friendship treaty. These treaties are perceived by Nepal as unequal and one sided. Nepal will like to revise the treaties so that they can become more equal and bilateral.

Ultimately Nepal will like to become a buffer state between India and China rather than be aligned with India. This is bound to change the balance of power in South Asia in favor of China as compared to the West.

South Asia as a whole will tilt more towards the rest of Asia. India has mostly followed policies which can be considered pro Western and less in line with the rest of Asia. India will come under increasing pressure from other countries in the region to change its pro western policies.
9 Sep 2008
Will Defeats in Beijing and Georgia end the Western Domination?
The West is blaming Russia for violating the International law. Was not the same West that helped Kosovo to declare independence from Serbia, even going against the mandate of the United Nations writes Swaraj Singh

Two very significant recent developments show that we may be approaching the very end of the Western domination. In Beijing Olympics, China has clearly showed that not only an Asian country can win more gold medals than any other country in the World but it also it can out spend any Western country as well as can present unparalleled spectacular shows. Jaqeous Rogge, the chairman of the International Olympics committee called these Olympics “exceptional”.

China spent 43 billion dollars, about three times the money spent on the Athens Olympics. The British have already announced that they cannot spend more than 9.3 pounds on the 2012 Olympics that is about one third of what China spent on the Beijing Olympics. It is estimated that more than 4 billion people watched these Olympics on the television. The number of people who watched the Olympics on the internet was thirty times more than the people who watched the Athens Olympics on the internet.

Many participants as well as visitors felt that the Chinese managed these Olympics extremely well and they were very helpful and polite. There were more than one hundred thousand volunteers helping the people. The Chinese had very difficult time choosing these volunteers from 1.2 million people who applied to become volunteers. These were all highly qualified people who were fluent in English.

At the same time when China was conducting this glorious Olympics, Russians gave one of the biggest blows to the Western domination. Georgia, one of the closest Western allies, was defeated by the Russians. This is not a defeat of Georgia but of the dominant West.

The West is blaming Russia for violating the International law. Was not the same West that helped Kosovo to declare independence from Serbia, even going against the mandate of the United Nations? Today when the Russians have paid it back with the same coin in Ossetia and Abkkezia, the Western criticism sounds hypocritical and the west is pursuing double standards.

When Russia was going through severe economic hardships and wanted help from the West, instead of helping it the West humiliated and taunted Russia. When Russia installed missiles in Cuba then the U.S. was very upset because the missiles were close to the borders but when the Russians are objecting to the installation of the American missiles in Poland, close to their border then America feels that Russia has no right to object.

Russia has said that it will 100% launch a nuclear attack on Poland if it goes ahead with the installations of the American missiles. However, President Bush and Condoleeza Rice tell us that the Russians do not mean that. What makes them so sure of that? What if Russia really lives up to its threat? Will America launch a nuclear attack on Russia? Russia is not Hiroshima or Nagasaki. The Japanese did not have a nuclear capability to retaliate but the Russians have more nuclear heads then America has. Are we forgetting the concept of M.A.D.? (Mutual Armed Destruction).

What is more important, Western arrogance or the survival of the planet and mankind? After all, out of many thousand centuries we only had two centuries of Western domination. I feel people of the World can happily live in a World that is neither dominated by the West nor by the East. A multi polar World where there is no domination by any one power center is the best solution.

Sawraj Singh, M.D. FICS is Chairman, Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman, Central Washington Collation for Social Justice
6 Sep 2008
Text of Revised NSG Proposal on India
1. At the [blank] Plenary meeting on [blank] the Participating Governments of the Nuclear Suppliers Group decided that they:

a. Desire to contribute to an effectiveness and integrity of the global non-proliferation regime, and to the widest possible implementation of the provisions and objectives of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons;
b. Seek to avert the further spread of nuclear weapons;
c. Wish to pursue mechanisms to affect positively the nonproliferation commitments and actions of all states outside the nuclear nonproliferation regimes; and
d. Seek to promote fundamental principles of safeguards and export controls for nuclear transfers for peaceful purposes.

2. Participating Governments have taken note of steps that India has voluntarily taken with respect to the following nonproliferation commitments and actions:

a. Deciding to separate its civilian nuclear facilities in a phased manner and to file a declaration regarding its civilian nuclear facilities with the IAEA, in accordance with its Separation Plan (circulated INFCIRC/731);
b. Conducting negotiations with the IAEA and obtaining approval by the Board of Governors on 1 August 2008 for an "Agreement between the Government of India and the IAEA for the Application of Safeguards to Civilian Nuclear Facilities," in accordance with IAEA standards, principles, and practices (including Board of Governors document GOV/1621);
c. Committing to sign and adhere to an Additional Protocol with respect to India's civil nuclear facilities;
d. Refraining from transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to states that do not have them and supporting international efforts to limit their spread;
e. Instituting a national export control system capable of effectively controlling transfers of multilaterally controlled nuclear and nuclear-related material, equipment and technology;
f. Harmonizing its export control lists and guidelines with those of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and committing to adhere to Nuclear Suppliers Group Guidelines; and
g. Continuing its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing, and its readiness to work with others towards the conclusion of a multilateral Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty.

3. Based on the commitments and actions mentioned above, Participating Governments have adopted the following policy on civil nuclear cooperation by Participating Governments with the IAEA-safeguarded Indian civil nuclear program:

a. Notwithstanding paragraphs 4(a), 4(b) and 4(c) of INFCIRC/254/Rev.9/Part 1, Participating Governments may transfer trigger list items and/or related technology to India for peaceful purposes and for use in IAEA safeguarded civil nuclear facilities, provided that the transfer satisfies INFCIRC/254/Part 1, as revised.
b. Notwithstanding paragraph 4(a) and 4(b) of INFCIRC/254/Rev.7/Part 2, Participating Governments may transfer nuclear-related dual-use equipment, materials, software, and related technology to India for peaceful purposes and for use in civil nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, provided that the transfer satisfies all other provisions of INFCIRC/254/Part 2, as revised.
c. At each Plenary, Participating Governments shall notify each other of approved transfers to India of Annex A and B items listed in INFCIRC/254/Part 1, as revised. Participating Governments are also invited to exchange information, including about their own bilateral agreements with India.
d. Participating Governments will maintain contact and consult through regular channels, including the Consultative Group and Plenary, on matters connected with the implementation of this Statement taking into account relevant international commitments or bilateral agreements with India. With a view to intensification of dialogue and partnership with India, the Chairman is requested to confer and consult with India to keep the Plentary informed of these consultations.
e. In the event that one or more Participating Governments consider that circumstances have arisen which require consultations, Participating Governments will act in accordance with paragraph 16 of the Guidelines.

4. In order to facilitate India's adherence to INFCIRC/254 Parts 1 and 2 and to remain current in its implementation of the Guidelines, the NSG Chair is requested to review proposed amendments to the Guidelines with India and inform the Plenary of the outcome of the dialogue with India. Participation of India in the decisions regarding proposed amendments will facilitate their effective implementation by India.

5. The NSG Point of Contact is requested to submit this statement to the IAEA Director General with a request that it be circulated to all Member States.
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