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Making the
Indo-Pak Peace Work
Siddharth
Srivastava
India’s Army chief N C Vij has
said earlier this week that the level of cross-border infiltration
from Pakistan to India has doubled when compared to the figures last
year. While there had been some decline in infiltration levels till
May this year after the Nov 23, 2003 cease fire between the two
countries, these have increased in June and July with the current
figures now reaching twice the level. This does not augur well for
the incipient stage of the peace talks between the two neighbors.
One of the benchmarks on which India pegs its relations with
Pakistan is the level of infiltration across the border, especially
along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Indian portion of Jammu &
Kashmir (J&K). The thinking, and justifiably so, is that
infiltration of heavily armed terrorists in the J&K Valley cannot
take place without the active complicity of the Pakistan Army
deployed along the border. Implicit is also the reasoning that such
militants must have been provided shelter and training in camps
organized by the Pakistan Army. For long India has held the critical
aspect of infiltration as the one most important factor in
determining Pakistan’s intentions in dismantling the terror networks
in the country as well as furthering the peace process.
The latest revelations by the Indian Army chief comes as a body blow
to the peace process which is now increasingly seen to be heading
towards a stalemate. The two major bugbears of Indo-Pak relations
over the years --- the issue of Kashmir raised by Pakistan and
infiltration by India have re-surfaced with a vengeance and threaten
to smother all else, including progress in trade, road links between
the Indian and Pakistan portions of J&K, deployment of troops at the
Siachin glacier, oil supply lines through Pakistan and plenty more
of the positive dynamics that can be generated once the two nations
are in sync. The situation has not deteriorated to levels post-Kargil
in 1999 when the war posturing continued for a long time. The High
Commissions are at almost full strength, air, road and rail links
have been restored from other parts of India, prisoners of war,
fishermen and others who accidentally stray across the border are
regularly let off; talks on nuclear weapons have also progressed
satisfactorily. But, it is increasingly being felt that a cul-de-sac
has been reached, with the air thick with suspicions once again with
blame lying on the structural factors that seem to prevent both the
sides from making any quantum progress.
From the Pakistan point of view, it is clear that the Army with a
vested interest in keeping the Kashmir issue on the boil has
prevailed over the sense of bonhomie that prevails at the
people-to-people level, most visible in the India-Pakistan cricket
series played earlier this year. The Pakistan Army sees simmering
discontent over Kashmir as important to its maintaining a
pre-dominant position in the country. Pakistan President Pervez
Musharraf has been making increasingly belligerent remarks on
Kashmir after a period of verbal restraint following the peace
agreement with then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, in
January 2004. Linking Kashmir to the peace process Musharraf has
repeatedly said that a time frame has to be set to solve the Kashmir
issue or else the peace talks will fail. . In a recent lashing,
Musharraf said that the terror camps in Pakistan will not be
dismantled until the Kashmir issue is solved.
Musharraf’s recent bellicose postures is seen as an attempt to steer
away from the ``Busharraf’’ tag that has stuck in Pakistan due to
his perceived kowtowing to US dictates in taking on the terror
networks in the country where he does not have too much room to
maneuver. Kashmir becomes a convenient bashing point to show that he
has a mind of his own. The other reason is that the Bush
administration, facing an uphill task in the November elections, is
concentrating on Musharraf key-holing the al-qaeda elements on the
western border with Afghanistan, considered to be the roosting
ground for Osama Bin Laden and his ilk, rather than the eastern
border and Indo-Pak relations
The blame, however, does not lie entirely on Pakistan. The new
Indian government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has not helped
the cause too much either. If there was a singular achievement of
the Vajpayee government, it was foreign policy, which was steered by
the then prime minister himself. Vajpayee won not only the trust of
the people of Pakistan but also the Pakistani establishment which
saw in him a statesman and a person they could communicate their
domestic apprehensions. If Vajpayee understood one thing about
Indo-Pak relations it was the dominant position and sensitive
handling of the Pakistan Army that any leader of Pakistan would have
to contend with to push the peace process through. Manmohan Singh is
a good man too, but does not command the stature of Vajpayee to have
things his way, hemmed in by the compulsions of coalition politics
as well as the towering presence of Congress president Sonia Gandhi
and senior ministers such as foreign minister Natwar Singh, with a
mind of his own, as well as a habit of shooting his mouth once in a
while. Indeed, Vajpayee too gave in to many of the demands of the
right wing elements of his party, including such blunders as not
sacking Narender Modi after the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat, but
foreign relations, especially with Pakistan, remained his baby and
he had his way with the able support of his principal secretary
Brajesh Mishra, who pretty much functioned as the behind-the-scene
foreign minister of India.
Manmohan too has begun to assert his fine pedigree, but being a
career economist, has his mind fixed more on economic management of
the country, especially with a focus on the poor, an area where
Vajpayee failed. An official with the foreign ministry said,
``unlike the Vajpayee dispensation, the top management of the new
government, including the prime minister, foreign minister as well
as top officials such as the national security advisor J N Dixit
have not managed to hit it off with the Pakistanis. The cloud of
suspicion between the two countries that was dissipating under the
previous government is beginning to re-appear.’’
The big question is where does one head from here --- there are
various options --- wait for the elections in USA to be over for the
new President to have the time and inclination to look beyond
domestic compulsions and steer the process, even if denying any such
third party intervention to the media; another option could be to
designate Vajpayee, who cuts a sorry figure now sitting quietly in a
rear seat of Parliament, as the chief peace negotiator with
Pakistan; the third and most feasible option is that Manmohan, with
active support from Sonia whom he cannot ignore due to her political
status, leads the charge to don the mantle of Vajpayee, make a few
great symbolic gestures such as a bus ride or a well advertised hug,
a few high-sounding words to win the trust of the people of Pakistan
who want peace as well as re-establish the earlier momentum. The
idea is to isolate the fringe jehadi elements that have taken root
in Pakistani society and the Army and provide some breathing space
to Musharraf or any leader of Pakistan to move forward. It is up to
India to wrest the initiative, only then will or can Pakistan follow
suit.
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