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"Oiling"
the Indo-Pak Peace Process
Siddharth
Srivastava
The just concluded first round
of the composite dialogue process between India and Pakistan
witnessed a war of words stretched to the limits of inimical
diplomatic exchange. The foreign ministers of India Natwar Singh
and Pakistan Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri said everything that one hoped
would not be said, in a public platform. Both the sides highlighted
the two issues that the other does not want to hear much about ---
while Pakistan talked about ``human rights violations’’ in the
Indian portion of Jammu & Kashmir, India expressed ``serious
concerns’’ over Pakistan promoting cross-border terrorism. Yet,
there is a silver lining to the exchange which could form the future
bedrock against relations turning awry --- a decision has been taken
to involve for the first time the petroleum ministers of the
countries to discuss the Iran-Pakistan-India gas line, which many
observers here feel could set the course for a sustained and
long-term peace between the two countries which almost went to war a
couple of years ago and were involved in a low-intensity conflict at
Kargil in 1999.
In the couple of days that Kasuri has been here, he covered almost
every aspect of the Kashmir issue that generally does not go down
well with India. For most part of his visit he was closeted with
separatist Hurriyat leaders of the state to convince them to sink
their differences and form a united front once more, while the
Indian stand is that free, fair and popular elections have been held
in the state which the Hurriyat boycotted and hence other political
parties should be given equal importance; Kasuri insisted that any
talks with India should involve representatives of Kashmir as well,
making the discussions ``tripartite,’’ while India’s stand is that
the Indian portion of J&K is an inalienable part of India with the
Indian government vested will full authority to discuss any issue
concerning the state; Kasuri also mooted the proposal of a separate
appointment of ``high representatives’’ to discuss Kashmir, which
India feels is not necessary given the high level official exchanges
that are already in place as part of the peace process.
In short, Kasuri ensured the centrality of Kashmir despite his later
re-iteration that Kashmir is not the ``unifocal’’ area of interest
between the two countries. Natwar Singh, on his part, also did not
leave any stone unturned to appeal to the hardliners in India, by
concentrating quite a bit of his talk on the issue of Pakistan’s
promotion of cross border terrorism and the human rights violations
in Pakistan portion of Kashmir, during the joint press conference
that the two ministers addressed on Sunday. The one fall out of
the exchange has been that the bus service from Indian Kashmir to
Pakistan, which the local population is in much favor of, seems to
be mired in technical difficulties.
Indeed, analysts here believe that any short-term diplomatic
breakthroughs have reached a cul-de-sac, with Kashmir and terrorism
as the main stumbling blocks that show no immediate sign of
resolution. The fundamentalist and jehadi elements in Pakistan are
deep-rooted within the Army and sections of Pakistani society that
will make it difficult for Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to
take on militants head-on even if he wants to. The clear indicators
are the assassinations attempts that the general narrowly escaped
around the time that former Indian prime minister Atal Behari
Vajpayee and Musharraf were trying to break the ice in January this
year. And as long as the militant view exists, no Pakistan leader
can be seen going soft on Kashmir.
Though both the countries are committed to continue the peace talks
with a meeting of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Musharraf
slated for later this month at New York, observers here are looking
at economics creating the necessary momentum to propel the two
nations forward. Thus, many here are attaching as much, if not more
importance to the luncheon meeting between Kasuri and India’s
petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyer, who wants to push through the
Iran-Pakistan-India oil pipeline, a $ 3.5 billion project designed
to transfer gas from Iran to India through Pakistan.
Negotiations on the 1,600-kilometre pipeline began in 1994, but no
headway has been made until now because of tensions between Pakistan
and India and the project’s massive cost. Officials said warming
ties between India and Pakistan despite the known prejudices augurs
well for the project. For Iran, which holds the world’s largest gas
reserves after Russia, India is as important as the European market
that it hopes access through a pipeline across Turkey. India, which
imports nearly 70 percent of its annual energy needs, has been using
ships to ferry liquefied natural gas from Iran because it fears a
gas pipeline running through Pakistan could be targeted by
militants.
There is a visible change in the approach now. ``India and Pakistan
have recognized the importance of available energy resources in the
region,” Kasuri told reporters after meeting Aiyar. “Officials from
our ministries of petroleum and gas will meet later this year to
discuss issues of multifarious dimensions,” he added.
"If our security concerns are adequately addressed, this project
could turn out to be the economic bedrock which could buttress many
more economic cooperation proposals," a spokes person for the
foreign ministry said. ``The economic gains for Pakistan, estimated
at between $600 million and $800 million annually in transit fee
alone, are a reasonable guarantee against sabotage,’’ the official
added.
In order to make the proposal viable India has offered that it could
meet the entire diesel requirements of Pakistan by laying a pipeline
from Jalandhar (in Punjab) to Lahore. In turn, Pakistan could help
in laying the gas pipeline from Iran to the Indian state of Gujarat.
Pakistan currently imports 4.5 million tons of diesel every year
from Kuwait and other Middle Eastern countries. Pakistan has said
that it may review its ban on imports of diesel from India to try to
reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern supplies. India’s largest
refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), which has pipelines running
close to the Pakistan border, has submitted a proposal to export
surplus diesel to Pakistan.
The oil pipeline, accompanied by the riches, will create a
constituency within the Pakistan establishment that will root for
normal relations with India and could over time and more economic
co-operation, rival the vested interests in the Pakistani Army which
clamors for funds and importance in order to promote anti-India
militants.
Indeed, observers detect a strong element of realpolitik even if
couched by the harsh Kashmir-language, among Pakistani leaders, the
beginning of which was made during the South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation summit in Islamabad this year. The summit led
to significant breakthroughs on the economic front, primarily in
crafting the framework agreement on South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA).
This will sharply boost economic cooperation over the next decade in
the region, primarily between India and Pakistan. Pakistan had
blocked SAFTA for as long as it could, but its economic woes have
compelled it to change tack.
The most pressing factor in changing Pakistani diplomacy is the
rising demand of its citizens for economic progress. Television
images of an economically promising India have made an impact on the
masses. Industry leaders of Karachi and Lahore, as well as people in
Federally Administrated Tribal areas and the North West Frontier
Province are also asking for their share of progress. Pakistan's
economy is growing at a sluggish 4 percent; India's growth rate is
double the figure. Twenty-five percent of Indians live in poverty;
in Pakistan the figure is 35 percent. Pakistan's dream of keeping
parity with India is now confined to the nuclear and military
fields. Even here, India, which spends a mere 2.3 percent of its GDP
on defense, outspends Pakistan by a factor of four.
From India’s point of view the Manmohan Singh government is now
showing signs that it is serious about taking forward the peace
process initiated by Vajpayee. The last thing it wants is to be
labelled as having failed to make progress in what is considered to
be Vajpayee’s biggest achievement when he was in power. Before the
Kasuri visit Manmohan met Vajpayee over breakfast to glean his mind.
Vajpayee advised Manmohan not to pursue the beaten path. Oil could
be one.
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