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Now
, the reverse seems to be happening. America and Europe are drifting
apart while India and China are coming together. This is because the
balance of power is shifting to the East. Russia lies in the middle
of the East and West both geographically and culturally. Whichever
way Russia will tilt, the balance of power will also shift in that
direction. Khruschev started leaning to the west. This tendency
created differences between Russia and China and then between India
and China. Eventually this trend led to the weakening of the East as
well as Russia. America benefited from this and became the sole
superpower, leading the world into a unipolar world. Gorbachev’s
Perestroika was the height of Russia’s tilt to the West . But
Gorbachev’s policies miserably failed. Then Russia started looking
to the East. President Putin firmly reestablished Russia’s eastern
relations as its top priority.
This led to a firm
alliance with China and created favorable conditions for improvement
of Indo-China relationship. India has always considered Russia as a
trusted friend, therefore a Russian tilt towards China gave impetus
to India to improve its relations with China. A strategic alliance
of Russia, China, and India is becoming more likely everyday. This
will restore the balance of power in the world. The world is
destined to become multipolar from a unipolar world. The principle
contradiction of the contemporary world is between America and the
third world.
Whether this
contradiction is resolved peacefully or violently will determine if
we will have peace or war. If India and Chin a come together then
chances of peaceful resolution of this contradiction increase
tremendously. The world can undergo a smooth transition from a
unipolar to a multipolar world and the Western-dominated world can
change into Asia’s century peacefully. Both these trends are
inevitable. Therefore the only choice we have is whether we will
have a peaceful or violent transition.
A peaceful change
is in the interest of the people of the world. Besides political
clout, India will also make tremendous gains in trade. By having
good relations with China, India can get better deals from America.
Whereas if Indian relations with China are strained, then both will
become more dependent on America, India much more than China. This
is so since China is much more powerful economically and
politically. The initial Indian fears of the Indian markets being
flooded by the cheap Chinese exports have not been realized.
Actually, India has gained more by trade with China. At present, the
trade is running about 350 million dollars surplus in India’s
favor. Whereas most of the other countries are facing a trade
deficit with China.
The total volume of
trade between India and China has increased from about 200 million
dollars in 1990 to about five billion dollars at present. India
expects it to reach 10 billion dollars in the near future. Indian
mangoes may prove as successful as Ranbaxy, which has captured
China’s markets in a big way. China and India are both developing
countries belonging to the third world. Together, they can work for
reforming international institutions such as the World Trade
Organization.
The present form of
globalization is detrimental to the fundamental interests of the
people of the third world and reform is long overdue. The trade,
cultural exchange, tourism, and sharing of matters of global concern
and commonality can be immediately promoted. This situation will
generate goodwill which may help to resolve more difficult issues
such as border demarcation and India’s relations with Pakistan,
particularly the problems of terrorism and Kashmir . By admitting
the historical reality that Tibet is a part of China, India has
taken a giant step towards better relations between the two
countries. One thing is certain, China wants peace and stability
south of its border, unlike the imperial powers.
A Chinese scholar
said that India conquered China two thousand year s ago without
sending a single soldier. This was done by the Buddhist religion.
Now, India’s information and technology (especially software),
delicious mangoes, and revival of Panchsheel (five principles of
peaceful coexistence) may do the same. History has already
determined that the 21st century is going to be Asia’s century.
China has already asserted its Asian identity and so far has been
the major beneficiary of Asia’s revived prestige and status. It is
up to India (which has so far been leaning to the West) to change
its course and start tilting to the East. India cannot change the
course of history. I t can only benefit by rediscovering its Asian
identity and joining the forces which are forcin g the world into a
new century, “Asia’s century.” | 
