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Najam
Sethi, a prominent Pakistani journalist in his article, ‘Indo –
Pak peace: Compulsions and dividends’ wrote: ‘Putting
"Pakistan First", which expressly means putting Kashmir on
the back burner… Pakistan has accordingly stopped talking of the
UN resolutions on Kashmir. It has also stopped talking about Kashmir
as the "core" issue. In other words, it has gone back to
the pre-Kargil Lahore Summit formula of February 1999. All that
remains is to exchange India's demand for a permanent end to
"cross border" infiltration with a composite dialogue with
India which meaningfully leads to a peace dividend in which the
people of Kashmir can also participate voluntarily and
democratically in any decision regarding their future.’
Another
writer and political analyst, C Raja Mohan wrote in his article,
Putting Pakistan First: ‘The time has come, many analysts in
Pakistan believe, for Islamabad to put Pakistan First' in its
national strategy. They argue that Pakistan's magnificent obsession
to "liberate Kashmir" at any cost since the late 1980s has
turned out to be disastrous. The decade of the 1990s in which
Islamabad put "Kashmir First" and embarked on a proxy war
against India has had extraordinary negative political, economic and
social consequences for the nation.’
Some
Pakistani policy planners believe that they are paying a very high
price for this obsession to "liberate Kashmir" at any
cost; and as a result they have falling behind. One doesn’t have
to be an economist to reach this conclusion; one can assess the
relative economic and social decline of Pakistan in the region by
looking at different indicators. For example, from the mid-1960s to
the mid-1990s, Pakistan was ahead of India in economic terms, and
now its per capita income has fallen below that of India. At the
turn of the millennium it stood at US$ 460 for India and US$420 for
Pakistan.
According
to a leading Pakistani economist, Shahid Javed Burki, with the
present rate of growth, the gap between India and Pakistan would
surely widen. If both countries economic growth remains at the same
level (6 percent for India and 3.5 for Pakistan), then by the year
2025, India’s economy will be ‘worth about $10 trillion in
purchasing power; and Pakistan’s will be $524 billion’. And in
per capita terms this will reflect as follows: In 2025, India's per
capita income will be $7,000, and Pakistan’s will be $2,500.
Even
Pakistan’s economic growth has been slower than that of
Bangladesh, former East Pakistan, which many thought was a burden to
West Pakistan. According to the World Bank’s recent report, which
gives the average annual economic growth rate of the two countries
in the last two decades: During the 1980s Pakistan grew at 6.3 per
cent and Bangladesh at 4.3 per cent. In the 1990s Pakistan's was 3.7
per cent while Bangladesh moved faster with 4.9 per cent. Of course
there are many factors for this economic decline and one big factor
is Pakistan’s military budget.
In
order to get out of this ‘economic mess’, Pakistani governments
are advised to change its economic and foreign policy, especially
with regard to India. Experts believe that Pakistan needs to get its
act together at home by improving law and order situation that
foreign investment could be encouraged; and make a U Turn on Kashmir
policy that relations with India could improve leading to the status
of a ‘most favoured nation’.
According
to new thinking Pakistan cannot progress only with the foreign aid,
and with continued hostility with India; it has to change for its
own sake and learn to live in peace with its neighbours. It appears
that this advice has ‘clicked’, and Pakistani rulers are busy
sorting out some of their internal problems; and more importantly,
devising a policy to say good bye to its old Kashmir policy.
Kashmiri
nationalists had no allusions about Pakistan’s sincerity to the
Kashmir cause. Pakistani governments never wanted to liberate the
Kashmiris, the whole approach has been to ‘get Kashmir’ and make
it part of Pakistan. And to Pakistani officials by making Kashmiris
citizens of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, they are ‘liberating’
them.
To
Pakistani officials it is not important whether the people of
Kashmir have any desire to join Pakistan or not. Of course they can
always find some who will say we are Pakistani first and want to
join Pakistan. It is not difficult to find such people; President
Bush had no difficulty in finding them in Afghanistan and Iraq even
after virtually destroying these countries.
I
never had any doubts about Pakistani political elite’s ability to
make U Turn on Kashmir. Political history of Pakistan is full of
examples where big U Turns are not only made but people accept them
as well.
No
self respecting nation abandons its legal and constitutional part of
territory, even if that territory is totally barren and inhabitable.
Pakistani rulers learnt an art of making U Turns and saying good bye
to its own legal and constitutional parts. According to the rules
agreed by both Muslim League and Congress regarding the position of
Princely States, state of Junagarrh legally became a part of
Pakistan after its Muslim ruler acceded to Pakistan, and Jinnah
Sahib as a Governor General of Pakistan accepted this accession. Now
no one even talks about it or even remember it.
East
Pakistan was legal and constitutional part of Pakistan until 1971,
but I have heard many Pakistanis saying that it was a liability to
us. Many said ‘thank God, we have unburdened ourselves of these
Bengali traitors’ (‘Jaan Chhooti in Bengalioon sey’.) No one
remembers them today; and no one even remembers those who stood
shoulder to shoulder with Pakistani soldiers in defence of former
East Pakistan.
If
the rulers of Pakistan could say good bye to East Pakistan, and show
no sense of national loss or loss of pride, giving away Kashmiri
territory to China in a border adjustment is perhaps too trivial to
be mentioned. For the sake of those who don’t know, Pakistan
handed over some Kashmiri territory to China from Gilgit and
Baltistan, and it was called border adjustment.
Some
kind of ’hold’ in Afghanistan was considered as a ‘strategic
depth’ for Pakistan, and support of Taliban government was a
corner stone of Pakistan’s foreign policy. I don’t want to be
seen as rubbing salt, but we all know how easily they were all
dumped.
In
order to preserve, what they regard as ‘Pakistani interest’,
Pakistan’s political elite needs another sacrificial lamb to make
this big U Turn on its Kashmir policy. Their stooges have already
started paving their way in order to ‘soften the blow’ by saying
we will accept LOC as a permanent settlement. Come on Kashmiris,
Pakistani elites need your sacrifices, ‘Baita charr ja sooli par,
ram bhali karay ga’, meaning, son put noose around your neck and
jump - God will take care of you.
The
writer is a Chairman Diplomatic Committee of JKLF, a known writer
and author of many books and booklets on Kashmir, and lives in
London.
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