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Shifting
Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia
Kashmir TELEGRAPH
News Service
The
US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have created
uncertainty. The question is not merely about the nature of post war
Iraq, or prices in the oil market. The US actions are bound to have
an impact on the internal power struggle in the Saudi royal family,
contest between reformists and hardliners in Iran, stability of the
Karzai government in Afghanistan and the Musharraf government in
Pakistan. Moreover, there will be long term implications for
terrorism and peace in the region.
The
issues mentioned above are explored in detail in a new report- Shifting
Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia. Brought out by Strategic
Foresight Group, a Mumbai based think-tank, the report looks at the
future of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the US
role in the region. Since these countries do not belong to any
established group of nations, they are collectively described as
“Undefined Asia”.
The
report argues that the principal motive for American engagement in
the region is neither combating terrorism, nor ensuring inexpensive
oil supplies. Currently, the US depends on Saudi Arabia and other
OPEC members for less than 15 % of its needs. Moreover, there is a
gradual shift taking place from oil to natural gas in the world
energy sector. The US interests in the region go beyond oil. They
are primarily to establish long term strategic superiority,
especially at this time when China and Russia are relatively weak.
The
US involvement is bound to have some impact on political and
economic dynamics of the region. But, there are internal
discontinuities expected to occur even if US were not to attack
Iraq. The five countries covered by the report have a male
population in the 15-35 age group of 50 million. With over 20%
unemployment rate, at least 10 million young men are unemployed. In
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, the education system has
turned many of them into radicals. Therefore, religious extremism
and terrorism are bound to spread, irrespective of US actions in the
region.
The
US attack on Iraq will impact the internal politics of all the
countries. In Pakistan, right wing religious parties have already
asked for General Musharraf’s resignation. Their strength and
demand for islamization of the Pakistani society is expected to
increase, as President Musharraf is trying to remain in power by
appeasing various extremist groups. Lashkar-e-Taiba is likely to
emerge as the main terrorist organisation in the entire region, as
the US has focused only on dismantling the Al Qaeda.
In
Afghanistan, there are indications of the re-emergence of the
Taliban, with support from Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. This combination
initially gathered strength in southern and eastern parts bordering
Pakistan. It has now spread to the northern areas. The report Shifting
Sands predicts that Hamid Karzai will find it difficult to
remain in power beyond the end of 2004 or once the US diverts its
attention away from Afghanistan.
The
US action in Iraq will have maximum impact on Iran. Currently,
reformists led by President Khatami have gathered popular support at
the cost of extremists led by spiritual leader Khamenie. There are
signs of growing frustration among the youth at the slow reform
process of President Khatami. It is possible that the spiritual
leader and the clerics around him will take advantage of the
insecurity created by the US attacks to strengthen their own
positions, resulting in a set back for reformists. If the US plays
its cards shrewdly, the reformist movement in Iran will strengthen
and a liberal leader will be elected as the President in 2004.
The
situation in Iraq will also have a dramatic impact on Saudi Arabia.
Already, there are growing tensions within Saudi society because of
fall in per capita income from 18,000 USD in 1982 to 8,500 USD in
2002. The economic reform process introduced in 1999, is moving very
slowly. The report notes that many of the Saudi terrorists in the
9/11 attacks came from the southern districts of the country, where
income levels are much below the national average. Moreover, there
are indications of a feud between Crown Prince Abdullah and Defence
Minister Prince Sultan. The latter represents the traditional power
base of the Sudairi faction in the royal family. But the Crown
Prince enjoys support of the religious leaders because of his
conservative views and distance from the US. The conflict between
the two factions is bound to result in the deterioration of Saudi-US
relations.
The
report presents three scenarios. The first Scenario, Where Eagle
Dares, is based on the assumption of dominant US role as a
preponderant driver of change. This envisages pro-West governments
across the region by 2004, with liberal foreign aid, but low foreign
direct investment. In this scenario, oil prices will remain at the
current rate and religious extremism will grow in rural areas.
The second scenario, Where
Crescent Shines, is based on the ascent of radical Islam in the
region. It envisages the establishment of leaders with islamist
orientation in all countries, suspension of foreign aid and
investment, breakdown of relations with the United States and
increase in oil prices to 40-50
USD range.
The third scenario, Where
People Smile, envisages the separation between the mosque and
the state. Important sign posts in this scenario are introduction of
gradual political reforms in the five countries, liberal foreign aid
and investment, crack-down on drug trade, regulation of para-state
foundations and positive engagement with the West. In this scenario,
oil prices will be stable at 25-30 USD per barrel.
Shifting Sands is the fourth report of
Strategic Foresight Group (SFG). Earlier reports on the future of
India and Pakistan have attracted international attention. SFG is
India’s foremost private sector think-tank with a
multi-disciplinary team. In order to prepare the report and develop
the scenarios, Sundeep Waslekar, principal author of the report
participated in almost 200 interactions in different parts of the
world with leaders and experts.
The report Shifting Sands,
does not explicitly offer implications for India, but they are
obvious. The first two scenarios will result in growth of terrorism
and turmoil in the region. Is India prepared for the challenge or is
it merely hoping that the third scenario comes true?
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