‘Drop Dawood Ibrahim’s name from the list of 20 criminals India wants extradited from Pakistan.’

This curious suggestion has been made by various state agencies to the Union Home Ministry in a new dossier on the underworld don. The dossier forms a part of the briefing for Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani prior to his visit to Pakistan. Advani is likely to go to Pakistan soon.

The idea behind the suggestion is apparently to leave open a chance that Dawood may return to India on his own, because there is little hope otherwise of getting him.

According to the agencies — among them the Intelligence Bureau, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) and the Mumbai police’s crime branch — India is not likely to get Dawood even after the signing of an extradition treaty with Pakistan.

Pakistan will either eliminate him and show it as an instance of gang rivalry or keep him under strict surveillance to avoid a leak of the “big secret”, that is, his involvement in ISI activities in India, the dossier points out.

He cannot relocate to Dubai as his empire there is all but eliminated, and no other country will give him refuge as he has been branded a global terrorist, the document notes.

If his name is deleted from the Top 20, he might decide to return to India on his own in the next couple of years, a CBI official based in Mumbai said.

The idea marks a significant change in India's policy vis-à-vis Dawood. Along with Kashmir, which of course tops the list of contentious issues, he has been the subject of major verbal exchanges between the two countries. The you-can-keep-him line will be a radical shift in position.

A crime branch officer who has had the distinction of arresting Dawood during his heyday in Mumbai said: "It is highly unlikely Dawood will return to India, but if he has to lead a prisoner's life in Pakistan, he might decide to live the same kind of life here too."

A line in the dossier that says "in a post-extradition pact scenario, either the ISI will liquidate Dawood camouflaging it as internecine gang rivalry or keep him and his movements under tight surveillance."

Joint commissioner of police, crime, Dr Satyapal Singh, agrees. "After the treaty, he will have outlived his resourcefulness for Pakistani operatives. So he will either be conveniently eliminated or confined, so that their secret remains a secret forever," Dr Singh says.

The ministry of external affairs has in the document given an update on Dawood's increasingly shaky ground in the United Arab Emirates. According to the ministry, Dawood has folded up his operational base in Dubai since it has become unsafe territory for him and does not even have an office there anymore.

The dismantling of his network in Dubai began in 1998, with the sale of his White House in Deira Dubai for six million dirhams. After this, his other properties and hotels in Dubai were sold off.

"The Sheikhs who were Dawood's friends and rushed to his rescue whenever he or his brothers were in trouble no longer have any clout in the Dubai government. So his political clout has considerably diminished," notes the report.

In 1996, Dawood's brother Anis narrowly escaped being extradited to India on an Interpol notice from Bahrain due to the Sheikhs' intervention. However, Dawood cannot expect the same kind of assistance and Arab hospitality any more.

The killing of his close aide Sharad Shetty last year dealt a double blow to Dawood's Dubai empire. The UAE government not only stopped all behind-the-scenes help but moved swiftly to tighten the noose on expatriate mafia activities on its soil.

Dossa and Memon may still have some properties and stake in the Emirates and may be occasionally spotted in Dubai, but Dawood cannot risk moving to Dubai after being branded a global terrorist especially because of the example of his former protégé, Abu Salem, who landed in a Portugal prison and is now being extradited to India.

The dossier also says India should make efforts to get Dawood's cronies Tiger Memon and Mohammed Dossa also designated as global terrorists as that would prevent them from going out of Pakistan.